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The MME has better skill for the Z200 anomalies over the PNA (Asian) region during MAM and DJF (JJA and SON) than the Asian (PNA) region. The area-averaged TCC skill over the NH tropics is the lowest in SON, while over the NH extratropics, it is highest in JJA. The first two EOF modes of the Z200 anomalies in all seasons are identified as predictable leading modes for a number of reasons. First, these observed modes are statistically well separated from the higher modes and account for the large fraction of total variability; second, these modes have clear physical interpretations and their sources of variability are understood in terms of ENSO teleconnection dynamics and third, the current MME is capable of predicting the spatial structure and temporal variation of these modes with high fidelity except the second mode of the DJF Z200.
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