By Ken Follett
Follett's new mystery (after Eye of the Needle, the foremost to Rebecca) includes cut-throat treachery and mixed-up romances. Jane and Ellis, american citizens in Paris, are enthusiasts, yet she breaks with him whilst she learns he's a CIA agent, informing on terrorists. Ellis is going again to the united states; Jane marries Jean-Pierre Debout, a French health care professional, and is going with him to Afghanistan to take care of insurgent households keeping out opposed to the Russian military. here's the place the novel's genuine motion, and its knife-edge pressure, commence. After the beginning of her child, Jane discovers that Jean-Pierre is himself spying for the Russians and has triggered a bloodbath of guerrilla warring parties who have been trapped on the foot of the mountains. Then Ellis reappears, bearing bargains of yank relief for Afghan chief Masud if the latter can unite his country's quarreling tribes. whereas Jean-Pierre is conspiring with the Soviet intruders to kill Masud, Ellis, Jane or even the newborn lady, the tale races to an explosive climax.
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Extra resources for Lie Down With Lions
Specialization can produce a better analysis of specific problems, but this may also hamper the formation of a more general outlook and increases the difficulty of coordination within and between intelligence organizations. Such tradeoffs are, however, inevitable. Before the Second World War, British naval intelligence focused on assessing German naval preparations for war. Far weaker than that of the British, the German navy was unprepared for war in 1939. From the vantage point of British naval intelligence, therefore, Germany was unlikely to launch a war because of the high risk involved.
The enemy had decided to attack, but canceled or delayed the D-Day at the last minute for reasons such as bad weather, unsuitable political conditions, dissatisfaction with the plan of attack or the military doctrine, or a high level of alert on the defender’s side. The best-known example of this sequence of a planned attack, followed by a countermobilization and then the deferring of the attack, is Hitler’s series of decisions to launch an offensive in the west: attacks were planned and then cancelled in November 1939 and January 1940, while the attack was finally carried out in May 1940.
This is summarized by the paradox of the self-negating prophecy: Information on a forthcoming enemy attack triggersa counter-mobilization, which, in turn, prompts the enemy to delay or cancelhis plans. 31 The methodological problems discussed thus far have no perfect solutions. The intelligence expert is constantly searching for a better way to overcome the difficulties he faces. Other than acquiring more and better information in real time, this search involves three basic strategies. The first is to ‘purge’ the intelligence process (as much as possible) of human biases and perceptions, the second is a more costly approach in which the analyst takes all threats seriously and implements the necessary precautionary measures; and the third strategy, to be discussed later, calls for certain organizational reforms designed to improve the INTELLIGENCE AND THE PROBLEM OF STRATEGIC SURPRISE 19 objectivity of the intelligence decision-making process by either reducing negative political influences or increasing the variety of participants and input involved in the process.